Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://er.chdtu.edu.ua/handle/ChSTU/3602
Title: Development of the US electric car market: macroeconomic determinants and forecasts
Authors: Sotnyk, Iryna
Hulak, Daniil
Yakushev, Oleksandr
Yakusheva, Oksana
Prokopenko, Olha
Yevdokymov, Andrii
Якушев, Олександр Володимирович
Якушева, Оксана Вікторівна
Keywords: development policy;electromobility;transport sector modeling;forecast;market
Issue Date: 30-Sep-2020
Publisher: Polityka Energetyczna. Energy policy jurnal
Abstract: In the article, mathematical modeling methods are used to study the main trends and macroeconomic determinants of the electric car market development in 2011–2018 on the example of the US. The determinants include economic (GDP), socio-economic (household income), energy (electricity use), and environmental (СО2 emissions) factors. The authors justify the role of electric transport in strengthening national energy security due to the transition to renewable energy technologies and the reduction of fossil fuel use. Based on the constructed linear regression equations, a weak relationship has been revealed between the number of electric vehicles sold and the environmental factor, which can be explained by the small share of electric cars in the US market. The formed multifactor linear model showed a positive impact of both the country’s GDP growth and electricity consumption increase on the number of electric vehicles sold. However, the rise in household incomes negatively influences market development due to insufficient consumer awareness of the electric transport operation benefits, an underdeveloped network of electric vehicle charging stations, etc. Based on the obtained multifactor model, the authors have built optimistic, optimal and pessimistic scenarios for the US electric vehicle market deployment for the next five years. In order to implement the most favorable scenarios, recommendations for market development factors’ management have been made. The results of the study can be used to improve public policy in the US transport and energy sectors, as well as in other countries to optimize the fuel and energy balance, strengthen the energy independence of states by developing clean transport and adapting the model to national specifics.
URI: https://er.chdtu.edu.ua/handle/ChSTU/3602
ISSN: 1429-6675
DOI: 10.33223/epj/127921
Volume: 23
Issue: 3
First Page: 147
End Page: 164
Appears in Collections:Наукові публікації викладачів (ФЕУ)

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